About a week before Hurricane Sandy made landfall, the two leading forecast models flatly disagreed: the American one carried the storm safely out into the Atlantic, the European one turned it hard left into Recent Jersey. The European model wasn't running a better simulation, it was running an ensemble. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated on the strength of the spread in forecast distribution, days before any single forecast could have justified moving them, and on October 29th, 2012, Sandy came ashore almost exactly where the models had put it.
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📌 Staff Data Scientist (Yukon)
🏢 Mercury
📍 Yukon