Apply polling literacy and causal analysis as a State Political Forecasting Analyst focused on elections, polling, and political-risk events. Work from fixed evidence cutoffs without hindsight.

This role authors expert political reports and forecasts for evaluating and improving AI models. You will analyze specific United States races, including Senate, governor, and statewide contests. The work requires documenting live judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds. You will also explain expected political and market impact.

Key Responsibilities

Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts

Document judgments about polling and win probabilities

Assess market-implied odds for political events





Explain causal political and market impacts

Grade model-generated analyses against your standards

Requirements

Hands-on experience covering specific races in swing states

On-the-ground knowledge of electorate, candidates, and local politics

Live forecasting experience, not retrospective commentary

Solid polling literacy and causal event analysis

Typically eight or more years of direct experience

Use state-specific race knowledge, probabilistic judgment, and disciplined evidence-cutoff reasoning to author rigorous political forecasts.

📌 State Political Forecasting Analyst (Winnipeg)
🏢 Mercor
📍 Winnipeg