About the workWe are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a robust analyst would have made at that moment.This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.What you will doAuthor point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoffMake and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied oddsExplain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impactReview model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standardWho we are looking forA senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analystA record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities,



or odds — not retrospective commentaryStrong polling literacy and causal event analysisTypically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performanceBackgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.Not a fitPure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.Point-in-time disciplineEvery task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.#J-18808-Ljbffr

📌 Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting (Winnipeg)
🏢 Mercor
📍 Winnipeg